Although scripts were flat before, the bogus pancreatitis warning by the FDA had an effect on scripts. Couple this with the LAR bio-equivalence debacle and with the pounding that the whole stock maket took and you have the current AMLN stock price of $7.4... Here is my take on things....- AMLN management is really really bad. There response to the pancreatitis bogus warning made the situation worse. They have also failed to cultivate proper relationships inside the FDA so that they are always surprised and one step behind the FDA decisions.
- The drugs, Symlin, Byetta are first in class and the pipeline potential of LAR and the obesity drugs make the AMLN potential unrivaled in the industry.
- However, given the ineptness of the management team and the reluctance of the BOD to do anything about the management I am starting to worry that the company will ever capitalize on its potential.
- At this point the stock is more of a value play then a growth story. Th PPS is selling at less then 2x revenues, and it has plenty of cash on hand, essentially if someone was to were to buy at today's prices they will be getting the LAR potential and the obesity pipeline for free.
- As sad as this maybe, I don't expect AMLN to remain an independent company for long. I expect that the stock will recover to around $15 by February, March time frame, then I expect the company to be take out between $25 and $30/share.
- I have been adding between $12.5 and $7
