DNDNObviously, I am very happy about DNDN as we saw some very positive results from the Provenge trial and the stock went up 500% from where I bought it. I did a few trade to reposition myself in the stock and generate some cash....
Although I am still very bullish on the stock and have a 1-2 years time horizon, I sold roughly 20% of my holdings to take out my initial investment. I also sold some puts from $10-$15 to try to add more shares if the stock fell to that level. Concurrently I sold Jan 2010 $30 puts and got $15. What this means is that if the stock gets to $30 by January I get to keep $15... If the stock stays below $30, I get to buy it for a net of $15. For anyone reading this don't hesitate to call if you have any questions.
My next look at taking more money of the table would come when the stock gets in the $40 range which I expect will happen within the next couple of years and I will continue trading DNDN options to add shares or generate cash over that time period
AMLNAMLN is the first stock that I held a large position in and one that I am again accumulating because it is very undervalued at these levels ( see earlier posts for valuation discussion). Icahn has done the same thing, so I feel that I am in good company. The main problem with AMLN is its management, they have utterly failed to take advantage of the incredibly life changing two first in class diabetic drug that the company has. It is really a shame both for diabetics and for shareholders. The only hope for AMLN is a change management. Again, I feel very validated in my thinking as Icahn is also seeking a change in management. For the record, I came to that decision before him, lol... See below an email that I sent to the company.
I bought more stock since I last posted my latest buy being at $11, I have also been selling puts along the way. My latest being at $10
Anyway, I am bullish on the stock relatively short term and also longer term. In the short term, I expect byetta monotherapy approval and label clarification. There is significant risk in owning this stock beyond the normal stock risks. Obviously should the mono decision and or the label go against them, then the stock could fall in the $5 range. Also, besides Icahn, there are big institutional holders of this stock, and should any of them get fed up with management and decide to unwind their position, it could be painfull. But I remain bullish in the short term, I think high teen to $20 is achievable in the next few months and in the long term a price above $40, if Icahn doesn't push for a sale before that...
My letter to AMLNHi Alice,
I am a small individual Amylin shareholder. For what its worth, this is why I am not voting for Amylin's slate of nominees.
- Amylin's inability to defend byetta in the court of public opinion, in the press and investment community, and even with GP's regarding the pancreatitis issue.
- Overly generous compensation for its executives and BOD, particularly in light of PPS performance and experience level.
- Since Joe departed the CEO post, the board has hired two essentially inexperienced and weak CEO's. This at a time when the company needed a strong hand the most.- Inexcusable delay in applying for Byetta monotherapy. That was a big strategic mistake particularly in light of having received an unexpected gift of an approvable letter from the FDA
- What appears to have been an unchecked hiring binge and increase of non essential expenses, such as the construction of an expensive cafeteria.
- The delay in the LAR filing time line, that completely took the investment community by surprise when initially revealed
- What appears to be an inept PR department, which lays squarely at the feet of the CEO.
- Management was not able to recognize the Januvia threat, incorrectly stating that it was not competition, when it clearly took a big bite out of byetta sales.
- Very, very weak marketing, branding efforts for Symlin and Byetta. Symlin should have much bigger penetration with type I's.
- Although the FDA is an agency that is very difficult to deal with, the inability to clear up the label issue and obtain monotherapy for byetta is a clear indication of an at best ineffective relationship with the FDA.Interestingly, when it came to saving their jobs, Amylin executives have finally shown the fervor, passion and aggressiveness I wish they have had when conducting all other shareholders business. I would appreciate it if you shared this letter with all executives and board members and would be more then happy to discuss it with them in person.
Best,
zino
