Tuesday, August 18, 2009

AMLN... Still disappointing investors...

I am very disappointed in Amylin's performance. The root cause of the problem is well established. They truly have one of the most inept management team ever assembled. I had high hopes that with the changes in the board of directors would come a change in the executive suite, particularly Dan, who is really in way over his head as a CEO. He has shown very few leadership qualities, he is a terrible communicator, and as far as I can tell, commands little respect form his employees or the street. So far no changes have been made, and Amylin shareholders continue to suffer the consequences. The sad part is that he is probably hard working and was very successful as a middle manager, he just has been promoted beyond his level of competence, a classic case of the Peter principle. To bad that Joe Cook chose him over Alain Baron, probably was the biggest mistake Joe has ever made with AMLN.
Anyway, there are still so many unresolved issue with AMLN, its a wonder the PPS is still around $13... I will list them again although I know I am repeating myself...
- We must hear from the FDA on Monotherapy for Byetta. Its been 18 months now, the decision is a year overdue. An example of AMLN's management inability to close with the FDA.
- Same with Pancreatitis label... That warning by the FDA was a joke, its been proven to be a joke, yet AMLN has yet to close on the issue with the FDA...
- A new Chairman of the board. AMLN does not have a real CEO as it is, and now they don't have a Chairman of the board as well. Its glaringly obvious that the company needs leadership... Right now the employees are doing their job with little fear of being held accountable. Its a recipe for disaster.
-Lilly continues to drag its feet with worldwide byetta sales... AMLN management needs to question what it going on, particularly in light of Lilly pushing their own GLP-1 forward.

In addition, the Ligaritude decision is about to come down from the FDA. If its positive it will devastate Byetta scripts.

So you might want to ask, why am I still in this stock. Main reason is that I still have hope that LAR will be a blockbuster drug and that by the time we get the approval, a new management team will be in place to execute the launch of LAR. But that is really it at this point, its AMLN's last chance at success. Some folks are toting AMLN's obesity pipeline, but I have completely discounted any hope of it providing any meaningful contribution to the value in the near or even foreseeable future.
I would not add anymore shares at these levels as the PPS might get much lower with a positive Ligar decision.