Wednesday, August 27, 2008

update on AMLN and the pancreatitis BS

Just in case anyone is following my AMLN recommendation and have seen the price tumble today down to $20. Don't be fooled by the pancreatitis story, it is all smoke and zero substance. The reality is that there are more pancreatitis and deaths for the diabetic population not on byetta then the population that is on byetta. Byetta rate of pancreatitis is the same as the general population. So you could make a better case that taking byetta actually reduces the rate of pancreatitis. Sadly though, the company management has failed to properly communicate these facts and the FDA is just a very inept, and corrupt organization. Another sad fact is that there are now diabetics that could benefit from the drug that will probably stay away from it. This will make one of my PPS drivers even less likely to happen then I originally thought. I expect that when the dust settle the PPS will recover some. The two reasons that I was and still am long AMLN are still intact ( obesity partnership or LLY buyout). The buyout is actually now more likely then ever. The PPS of the buyout unless the price fully recovers to the high 20's low 30's is probably now unfortunately lower. These levels are obviously a better entry point.

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