AMLN and ARNA

AMLN
Ok, so now we've had two positive news releases by AMLN... One indicating that the LAR NDA was accepted by the FDA and the other that they've had some good results out of the Phase II obesity trial. I did not expect much out of the NDA press release as it was expected. The obesity Phase II trial results on the other hand should have yielded a better price movement. The study was sizable (608 patients) and the results were excellent, as a reference point, about twice as good as what ARNA got in their latest Phase III announcement. The result confirmed earlier Phase II trials the results of which can be found in one of my earlier post in a comparison chart with other competitors. What does this mean for my investment in AMLN, literally nothing, I am neither adding nor subtracting shares based on this and this is why.
- The obesity pipeline is still only in Phase II... And AMLN has had multiple phase II obesity trials..
- They have offered no guidance as to what is next
- Their obesity cocktail is an injectable. And AMLN's history with marketing injectables is very suspect
- Other competitors, although plagued by safety concerns, are further ahead and are not injectables.
- Obesity commercialization is far in the future... 2013?
- No partner yet. I don't feel that the obesity pipeline impact on PPS will be reflected until they find a partner. Wall street might then think they are serious and truly have something. AMLN management on its own has close to zero credibility left.

The near term drivers in this stock are still.
- FDA decision on ligaritude
- FDA decision on monotherapy for byetta and the bogus pancreatitis label update.

Obesity is not in play at this time for AMLN

ARNA
The stock to a tumble to $4 over the last couple of days after the announcement of the stock offering. This is fairly typical response whenever their is a dilutive stock offering. In general stock do recover once the shorts have taken their pound of flesh. I expect he same will happen with ARNA.

So in summary, ARNA is in play for obesity, AMLN is not yet in play....