Saturday, September 26, 2009

Thoughts on AMLN, DNDN, ARNA... And a few green shoots..

AMLN.... My problem child, just as the stock showed some life, Eastborn, one of the biggest holder, decided to sell a major chunk. A bit confused why they did that since they made such a big deal of changing the BOD. Fundamentals have not changed (see previous posts), but a couple of interesting developments... Merck's Januvia is finally showing its true colors, cases of pancreatitis. This drug will eventually be pulled out of the market or die from lack of sales because its essentially ineffective and dangerous (pancreatitis is only the tip of the iceberg). FDA delays decision on Ligaritude until Q4. Both development are positive for AMLN, now if we could only fix the management!!!!
DNDN... They continue to roll and make us money. Unless the sky falls, keep holding this stock. I sold the Oct $40 calls on all my holdings when the stock reached $30, 25% out of the money after it had gone up more then 20% on rumors of a deal with a big pharma.. I figured since it already had gone up 20%, chances to get a greater then 40% premium were slim... Couldn't believe I got close to $1 for these calls....The stock is back down to $26, so I am fairly happy with that move.
ARNA... September data looked good... For those that are experienced with the industry and the game the short hedges play, the move back below $5 was expected. Next step is to decide when and whether to jump in with both feet. I will post when I decide what to do.
Green shoots... SGMO, it has major home run potential, a la DNDN, I am studying this stock carefully. JAZZ, might have a blockbuster, filing an NDA in Q4, I also need to study more...

I really need to decide, what to focus on.. My experience is that its ok to follow a few stocks 5 or stocks... But you can only get serious about 2 or 3... The stock you are serious about take a lot of time.. So right now, I am serious about DNDN and AMLN, and would like to get serious with ARNA, ELN, SGMO, and potentially JAZZ... ARNA and ELN are at the right PPS for serious accumulation, SGMO and JAZZ are not, but could be shortly... I guess these are good problems to have.

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